Visa Bulletin

[Niksovac]

dA, DRUZE moj broj je 27 000 i neki, da ne kucam sad tacan, ali ja nikakav mejl nisam dobio?

Jel mozes samo da budes precizan kad sam to vec trebao da ga dobijem?

Hvala puno

[ikac89]

Jel si poslao DS260 obrazac? Broj 21700 je bio current za jul tj. cutoff za jul je bio 21.900, a to znači da bi svi brojevi koji su manji od tog broja trebalo da dobiju datum intervjua, samim tim i tvoj broj 21700. Trebalo je da dobiješ mail od KCC da proveriš status na onoj stranici gde si proveravao da li si izvučen i tu bi trebalo da piše kog datuma i u koje vreme ti je zakazan intervju.

[ikac89]

Isteklo mi vreme za edit. Sad vidim da si napisao 27000 (u prošloj si napisao 21700). Ako je 27000 broj onda još uvek nisi stigao na red, a nažalost verovatno i nećeš tj. male su šanse da stigneš ukoliko se nešto značajno ne promeni.

[Supernaut]

DV4Roger se posle ispravio, pa mi je napisao:

I didn't mean the redistribution theory as such has failed, it's my understanding of the decision making I consider flawed.

A evo kako ide razmisljanje:

The August numbers are well within the regions' quotas, so there hasn't been any redistribution so far. But I agree, Oceania could have been poised for a September redistribution.

Regarding Europe.
The low increase seems also in line with the quota. DV-2017 had a slightly higher quota but lower case density, saw some redistribution to the region, and had a "cutoff" at 30.7k (current). But the year also had a "second draw," and the no-response rate jumped by more than 60% for the newly selected cases. With an unchanged rate, the cutoff could well have been at 27.5k. Therefore, a cutoff below 27k for DV-2018 wouldn't be a surprise — if no redistribution happens.

What makes Europe a pain to predict is Uzbekistan. The country's erratic behavior has been keeping me wary since DV-2015. Always around 4500 selectees (unlikely to have increased in the 2nd draw), the country had 2378 visas in DV-2016 compared to 3199 in DV-2017. In both years Uzbekistan was current in Jan/Feb and there were enough visa numbers available, in DV-2016 anyway. The cleared AP cases must have made the difference. The Monthlies for DV-2017 show 499+644=1143 Uzbekistan DVs in Aug/Sep alone.
In DV-2018 again, Uzbekistan has been current since February. APs cleared by early July will go into VO's calculations and lower the September cutoff. I don't know if/how they make provisions for later clearances, but VO might mainly reuse visa numbers returning on September 1 for these cases. The 644 Uzbekistan September visas could have even VO caught off guard — and left AOS cases high and dry. Predictions for Europe are bound to be hit or miss, unless you can estimate how many Uzbekistan AP cases clear early enough to influence the July decision. The "lowered interview allotment" can be a (bad) sign that there are such cases in play.
At any rate, the current visa demand suggests that raising the cutoff by 1000 points will generate 500-550 additional non-U2 CP visas. The highish number of Ukrainian visas issued so far isn't helpful either. Still, I think the European quota should be able to sustain a September cutoff of at least 25.5k, and if the redistribution theory holds any water, the cutoff should be considerably higher.

We saw redistributions in the past, and while I don't quite understand why VO would wait until July to make the decision (waiting for Supreme Court, or simply standard procedure?), I'm still optimistic that it will happen, my original premise that VO feed *all* visa numbers into the regions (generating a bonanza) now looks rather daring though. But I'm not yet ready to let go of it.
Incidentally, AF is current! That was to be expected, sure, but I didn't think it would happen already in August. Does the region have some spare visa numbers? (@VisaOffice)

[moniigor]

Spored ovo pak se sveduje na redistribucija na vize taka da ostaje da se molimo I da opfate veci broj

[ikac89]

Videćemo šta će biti. Sve ovo što DV4Roger piše bi moglo da se desi, ali to ne znači i da hoće. Ja iskreno nisam optimista. Osećam se kao pre pred izvlačenje. Znaš da je mala šansa da te izvuku, ali nije nemoguće. Tako i sad, ne očekujem da stignem na red, ali nije još uvek sve gotovo. Do poslednjeg bulletina ostalo je još 20ak dana. Ostaje nam samo da čekamo.

[Niksovac]

druze hvala ti puno na odgovorima i izvini, godinu dana nisam pogledao taj broj
i zakleo bih se da mi je bio 21.700

a u stvari mi je sad pogledah 22.700

Znaci stizem za Avgust???

[ikac89]

Da, trebalo bi da dobiješ uskoro mail od KCC da proveriš status na onoj stranici gde se proverava da li si izvučen i tu će da piše datum i vreme intervjua.

[Niksovac]

iako nisu stigli do mog broja jos, podrazumeva se da cu biti u sledecem buletinu
odnosno da ce mi intervju biti u avgustu

a ovi sto su bili u ovom sad buletinu, do 21900 njima je intervju u Julu?

[ikac89]

Stigli su do tvog broja. Cutoff broj za avgust je 23325 i trebalo bi da imaš intervju u avgustu.