Visa Bulletin

[Supernaut]

Prvobitno poslao korisnik ikac89

Turci su napravili poređenje ove i prešle godine tj. DV2018 i DV2017

Do broja 18050 je izdato 14925 viza prošle godine (DV2017), a ove godine 14034 (DV2018), dakle manje viza je izdato ove godine, ako se gleda do broja 18050.

A evo koliko je viza dalje podeljeno prošle godine do broja 30.000.

цн18 050 издат број: 14 925
цн20300 издат: 16088
цн21900 издато: 16943
цн23325 издато: 17596
цн27324 издато: 18813
цн28000 издато: 19024
цн29000 издато: 19372
цн30000 издато: 19732

Ukoliko odluče da daju isti broj viza kao prošle godine, logično je da se opet stigne do 30.000 ili bar do 28-29000. Ono što nije logično su ovako mali skokovi ove godine. Prošle godine je sve mnogo brže išlo. Jedino logično objašnjenje bi moglo da bude da su prošlog meseca obrađivali tj. da su obradili sve obrasce iz Azije i Afrike, a da su Evropu ostavili za kraj.

Baš je nedavno neko na Britovom forumu pokušao da uporedi DV2017 i DV2018, ali na to je on prokomentarisao da ove godine ništa nije isto kao prošle??? Ni derivate, ni response rate... Čudno, jer se brojke skoro poklapaju. Znači da bi sve trebalo da bude slično i derivate i response rate...

A na immigration forumu:
The low increase seems also in line with the quota. DV-2017 had a slightly higher quota but lower case density, saw some redistribution to the region, and had a "cutoff" at 30.7k (current). But the year also had a "second draw," and the no-response rate jumped by more than 60% for the newly selected cases. With an unchanged rate, the cutoff could well have been at 27.5k. Therefore, a cutoff below 27k for DV-2018 wouldn't be a surprise — if no redistribution happens.

Pa onda sve ono o nepredvidivim U2:
What makes Europe a pain to predict is Uzbekistan. The country's erratic behavior has been keeping me wary since DV-2015. Always around 4500 selectees (unlikely to have increased in the 2nd draw), the country had 2378 visas in DV-2016 compared to 3199 in DV-2017. In both years Uzbekistan was current in Jan/Feb and there were enough visa numbers available, in DV-2016 anyway. The cleared AP cases must have made the difference. The Monthlies for DV-2017 show 499+644=1143 Uzbekistan DVs in Aug/Sep alone.