Visa Bulletin

[Supernaut]

Prvobitno poslao korisnik ikac89

Turci su napravili poređenje ove i prešle godine tj. DV2018 i DV2017

Do broja 18050 je izdato 14925 viza prošle godine (DV2017), a ove godine 14034 (DV2018), dakle manje viza je izdato ove godine, ako se gleda do broja 18050.

A evo koliko je viza dalje podeljeno prošle godine do broja 30.000.

цн18 050 издат број: 14 925
цн20300 издат: 16088
цн21900 издато: 16943
цн23325 издато: 17596
цн27324 издато: 18813
цн28000 издато: 19024
цн29000 издато: 19372
цн30000 издато: 19732

Ukoliko odluče da daju isti broj viza kao prošle godine, logično je da se opet stigne do 30.000 ili bar do 28-29000. Ono što nije logično su ovako mali skokovi ove godine. Prošle godine je sve mnogo brže išlo. Jedino logično objašnjenje bi moglo da bude da su prošlog meseca obrađivali tj. da su obradili sve obrasce iz Azije i Afrike, a da su Evropu ostavili za kraj.

Baš je nedavno neko na Britovom forumu pokušao da uporedi DV2017 i DV2018, ali na to je on prokomentarisao da ove godine ništa nije isto kao prošle??? Ni derivate, ni response rate... Čudno, jer se brojke skoro poklapaju. Znači da bi sve trebalo da bude slično i derivate i response rate...

A na immigration forumu:
The low increase seems also in line with the quota. DV-2017 had a slightly higher quota but lower case density, saw some redistribution to the region, and had a "cutoff" at 30.7k (current). But the year also had a "second draw," and the no-response rate jumped by more than 60% for the newly selected cases. With an unchanged rate, the cutoff could well have been at 27.5k. Therefore, a cutoff below 27k for DV-2018 wouldn't be a surprise — if no redistribution happens.

Pa onda sve ono o nepredvidivim U2:
What makes Europe a pain to predict is Uzbekistan. The country's erratic behavior has been keeping me wary since DV-2015. Always around 4500 selectees (unlikely to have increased in the 2nd draw), the country had 2378 visas in DV-2016 compared to 3199 in DV-2017. In both years Uzbekistan was current in Jan/Feb and there were enough visa numbers available, in DV-2016 anyway. The cleared AP cases must have made the difference. The Monthlies for DV-2017 show 499+644=1143 Uzbekistan DVs in Aug/Sep alone.

[ikac89]

Uradio sam analizu od 18050 do 30000 prošle i ove godine.

Ukupan broj caseova prošle godine je 5004. Dakle to su pravi casovi sa statusom (At NVC, Ready, Issued, Refused i Administrative processing, dakle sve sem None).
Ove godine taj broj je malo veći i iznosi 5260.

Istina je da je taj broj malo veći, ali ništa značajno. Moje mišljenje je da ukoliko odluče da daju isti broj viza kao prošle godine, da bi moralo da se stigne bar do 28000. Ali opet, ko zna kakve oni kalkulacije prave. Iskreno ne bi me ništa iznenadilo, ni da ostane ovaj broj za septembar, a ni da stave čak i current. Mi nažalost ne možemo ni na šta da utičemo, možemo samo da čekamo i da se nadamo.

[MilicaBB]

Ufff citam ove vase postove svaki dan i mogu da zamislim samo kako vam je :/ od trenutka kad ste izvuceni pa do danas kad vidite kako sporo idu brojevi od meseca do meseca.. Nadam se iskreno da ce sto vise vas stici na red jer je tuzno ovo zaista.. meni je za dv2019 broj 30xxx tako da me ne bi cudilo da se ponovi situacija kao i sa 2018 sa brojevima tako da se ja pripremam vec na to da moze da se desi da i ne dobijem vizu..

[Supernaut]

Prvobitno poslao korisnik ikac89

Uradio sam analizu od 18050 do 30000 prošle i ove godine.

Ukupan broj caseova prošle godine je 5004. Dakle to su pravi casovi sa statusom (At NVC, Ready, Issued, Refused i Administrative processing, dakle sve sem None).
Ove godine taj broj je malo veći i iznosi 5260.

Istina je da je taj broj malo veći, ali ništa značajno. Moje mišljenje je da ukoliko odluče da daju isti broj viza kao prošle godine, da bi moralo da se stigne bar do 28000. Ali opet, ko zna kakve oni kalkulacije prave. Iskreno ne bi me ništa iznenadilo, ni da ostane ovaj broj za septembar, a ni da stave čak i current. Mi nažalost ne možemo ni na šta da utičemo, možemo samo da čekamo i da se nadamo.

Upravo tako... ništa ne može da se prognozira jer je zaista sve moguće. Čak je i DV4Roger oprezan, jer je dosada olako davao izjave:

@DV4ROGER hi Dear 248xx. I am so afraid . how is my luck ? (( high luck my god (

The May Monthly still shows strong demand from U2. Ukraine is already at an all-time record and still going (became current just in May). Uzbekistan is going fast, too, with an expected wave of AP clearances looming. The demand from the rest of Europe is growing with CP visa density now at 550/1000.
Not knowing when the AP clearances claim visa numbers from VO and the still open question regarding redistribution mean that I can't call 2018EU248## a safe number. For now, 2018EU248## is still in the ballpark — comfortably so.

[Supernaut]

Prvobitno poslao korisnik MilicaBB

Ufff citam ove vase postove svaki dan i mogu da zamislim samo kako vam je :/ od trenutka kad ste izvuceni pa do danas kad vidite kako sporo idu brojevi od meseca do meseca.. Nadam se iskreno da ce sto vise vas stici na red jer je tuzno ovo zaista.. meni je za dv2019 broj 30xxx tako da me ne bi cudilo da se ponovi situacija kao i sa 2018 sa brojevima tako da se ja pripremam vec na to da moze da se desi da i ne dobijem vizu..

@MilicaBB, bolje je da se pripremate i na lošiji scenario. Mi smo mislili da samim tim što smo izvučeni, dobijamo GC, jer je svih godina do sada tako i bilo. Jeste bio dugotrajan proces, ali su na kraju odlazili svi koji su to zaista i želeli. Ove godine će očigledno biti drugačije, bar u Evropi...

[ikac89]

Već sam pisao to, ali da mi je neko prošle godine u ovo vreme rekao nećeš da dobiješ vizu, prvo što bi pomislio je da bi me na intervjuu nešto odbili, a sigurno ne bih pomislio da neću da stignem na red.

U poslednjih 10 godina, 8 godina je bilo current, osim 2014 i 2015 kada su stigli brojevi do 40.000, odnosno 43000. Ne znam koji je bio najveći broj 2014., ali 2015. je bio oko 45000, što znači da nisu stigli samo oni sa baš visokim brojevima. U principu, uvek su rizični ti najveći brojevi u overselected godinama, ali ovo što se dešava ove godine je nezabeleženo. Ove godine očekivalo se da rizični brojevi budu preko 35000, ali ovo niko nije očekivao. Možda je ovo samo slučajnost, a možda su i oni nešto zeznuli prilikom izvlačenja. Uglavnom, imaćemo mnogo razočaranih ljudi u Evropi ove godine.

Edit 2014. godine brojevi su išli do 55.000, što znači da je i tada dosta ljudi ostalo bez viza...

[ikac89]

Dear Sir / Madame,
We are writing this letter to you as FY2018 Diversity Visa Program Selections from the European Region, and would like to express our thoughts regarding your decisions that will shape our future.

It's been a long time since I first visited the United States in the United States. It's been a while since I first visited the United States. Unfortunately, we have all the EU case numbers above 23.325, which is the number of announced for the month of August. There is only one month -September- left for DV2018 program to conclude and we are hoping to get our cases to be processed in September and wishing that as many of us as possible will immigrate from Europe to United States.

We are not aware of all the selectees will get a chance for visa interviews. During the past year, we have been glued to our computers each month for visa bulletin announcements. This year, many regions have been luckier year compared to the European region, and we are aware of each year's monthly cut-off numbers. Not the European region and hoping to see good news in the August bulletin, which will be the last chance for us.

We know there are 50,000 DV visas available this year and of course we do not know how many visas have been given so far in the program and how many are left. And we are aware that you are making all the necessary arrangements in order to meet the needs of the students.

This year, we felt that some people would be given the chance to continue with diversity visa processing, which would still be undecided, whether immigrating or not, We assume for those people that their cases remain open until there is a clear decision given by Consular Officers. We are afraid that this may be the case or the possibility of a cut-off number that will be announced next month. As you can guess, this is the reason for the loss of the visa.

We believe it is pretty fair to choose more people than visa numbers since not all will be eligible for visas. And we believe this is done to maximize distributed visa numbers that are available and all of them if possible. We are a group of highly motivated people, and we are immigrants to the United States, and we are meeting in the United States. And we would like as many of us as possible to get visas and immigrate to the United States.

We have seen Diversity Visa, which has been in service for over a decade, and it has been used for the program. We have seen DV2018 instructions regarding maximum visa numbers available on the page 15 of the official DV 2018 instructions document, where it was indicated that the law was up to 55.000 visas to be used by Diversity Visa program, for which up to 5000 of 55,000 could NACARA (Nicaraguan Adjustment and Central American Relief Act). We have indicated that we are not concerned about the situation and that we have used the program for the next 5 years. From "Yearbook of Immigration Statistics" which is available on the DHS official website, we could see that in the last year we have been there for less than 1000 visas for the NACARA program and we are deducing that the situation will be similar to the same this year. Since immigration laws let us use these visas, we can expect that visa numbers for waiting cases and these visas might give flexibility. Consular Officers to decide on open cases and reduce the visa numbers that could be unused otherwise. Therefore, the program could reach its purpose by allowing 50,000 people to immigrate the US.

"Visa Bulletin For August 2018". We are pleased to announce that the Visa Bulletin for August 2018 will be available in the United States. We are not trying to make a point, we are not trying to point out any mistake or misregulation, we are not trying to teach anyone anything, but we have no other intensions. We hope to see as many of us as possible.

Thank you very much,
King Regards,

XXX (Name Surname)
XXX (Date of birth)
XXX (Case number)

We have used these websites to get information and extract data:
https://www.dhs.gov/immigration-statistics
https://travel.state.gov/content/tra...july-2018.html
https://www.uscis.gov/ilink/docview/...-0-1083/0-0-0- 1159.html
https://travel.state.gov/content/tra...tatistics.html
https://travel.state.gov/content/dam...ations/DV-2018 Instructions English.pdf

Ovo pismo planiraju da šalju turci KCC-u... Mnogo bolja varijanta bi bila kada bi našli neku mail adresu od Visa Office-a i njima poslali direktno.

[Supernaut]

Prvobitno poslao korisnik ikac89

Ovo pismo planiraju da šalju turci KCC-u... Mnogo bolja varijanta bi bila kada bi našli neku mail adresu od Visa Office-a i njima poslali direktno.

Gledali smo, i sve nas vraća na national visa center i mejl KCCDV@state.gov

[Supernaut]

Prvobitno poslao korisnik ikac89

Ovo pismo planiraju da šalju turci KCC-u... Mnogo bolja varijanta bi bila kada bi našli neku mail adresu od Visa Office-a i njima poslali direktno.

Da posaljemo i mi njihovo pismo pa cemo lako jos jednom da posaljemo ako nadjemo mejl visa office..

[ikac89]

Poslaćemo naravno, to je najmanji problem. Nadam se da će i ovi ostali videti ovo. Na spisku dobitnika sa foruma ima bar 30-ak ugroženih, ali većina su neaktivni članovi, koji ne posećuju forum tj. možda i posećuju, ali ne pišu. U principu, šanse da ovo ima efekta su manje od 1%, ali kao što kažu, davljenik se i za slamku hvata. Ništa nas ne košta da probamo.